candidates:
  - name: A
    ticker: A
    description: Business A
    market_cap: 238000000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: Unexpected stuff happens
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.05
      - thesis: Core business keeps losing earnings power
        intrinsic_value: 170000000000
        probability: 0.3
      - thesis: "Business doesn't grow, earnings kept flat"
        intrinsic_value: 270000000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: Earnings grow slightly
        intrinsic_value: 360000000000
        probability: 0.15
  - name: B
    ticker: B
    description: Business B
    market_cap: 363000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: Unexpected stuff happens
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.05
      - thesis: Liquidation value
        intrinsic_value: 350000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: Cycle moves upward and the market values the business correctly
        intrinsic_value: 900000000
        probability: 0.45
  - name: C
    ticker: C
    description: Business C
    market_cap: 35300000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: >
          They don't manage to liquidate and it turns out that they're
          incompetent as they were in the past
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.1
      - thesis: They manage to liquidate at 25% of similar realized prices in the past
        intrinsic_value: 33500000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: They manage to liquidate at 50% of similar realized prices in the past
        intrinsic_value: 135000000
        probability: 0.4
  - name: D
    ticker: D
    description: Business D
    market_cap: 608000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: >
          Assumes depressed normalized earnings, significantly higher future
          capital expenditures than in the past, inability to pass on the
          increased costs to customers, and a multiple of 10x.
        intrinsic_value: 330000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: >
          Assumes that the last year earnings are representative of future
          earnings, with 15x multiple.
        intrinsic_value: 1000000000
        probability: 0.5
  - name: E
    ticker: E
    description: Business E
    market_cap: 441000000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: Unexpected stuff happens
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.05
      - thesis: >
          They lose market share and normalized earnings power by 10% a year for
          five years, after which someone is willing to pay 8x earnings.
        intrinsic_value: 320000000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: >
          They keep growing at 5% a year for five years, after which someone is
          willing to pay 12x earnings.
        intrinsic_value: 800000000000
        probability: 0.45
  - name: F
    ticker: F
    description: Business F
    market_cap: 17600000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: They don't manage to liquidate and just lose all the money
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.05
      - thesis: >
          They liquidate without realizing assets in escrow account, assuming
          significant quarterly cash loss until liquidation
        intrinsic_value: 10000000
        probability: 0.25
      - thesis: >-
          They liquidate everything, assuming reasonable cash loss until
          liquidation
        intrinsic_value: 25000000
        probability: 0.7