long_only: true
max_permanent_loss_of_capital:
  fraction_of_capital: 0.5
  probability_of_loss: 0.2
max_individual_allocation: 0.3
max_total_leverage_ratio: 0.0
candidates:
  - name: B
    ticker: B
    description: Business B
    market_cap: 363000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: Unexpected stuff happens
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.05
      - thesis: Liquidation value
        intrinsic_value: 350000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: Cycle moves upward and the market values the business correctly
        intrinsic_value: 900000000
        probability: 0.45
  - name: C
    ticker: C
    description: Business C
    market_cap: 35300000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: >
          They don't manage to liquidate and it turns out that they're
          incompetent as they were in the past
        intrinsic_value: 0
        probability: 0.1
      - thesis: They manage to liquidate at 25% of similar realized prices in the past
        intrinsic_value: 33500000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: They manage to liquidate at 50% of similar realized prices in the past
        intrinsic_value: 135000000
        probability: 0.4
  - name: D
    ticker: D
    description: Business D
    market_cap: 608000000
    scenarios:
      - thesis: >
          Assumes depressed normalized earnings, significantly higher future
          capital expenditures than in the past, inability to pass on the
          increased costs to customers, and a multiple of 10x.
        intrinsic_value: 330000000
        probability: 0.5
      - thesis: >
          Assumes that the last year earnings are representative of future
          earnings, with 15x multiple.
        intrinsic_value: 1000000000
        probability: 0.5